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Situation Assessment paper: warned against a great danger facing Jerusalem

US embassy transferred to Jerusalem the last US paths biased to Israel

Situation Assessment paper: warned against a great danger facing Jerusalem, and called for mobilization of all Palestinian, Arab, Islamic and international efforts to maintain Arab and Islamic Jerusalem identity, preserve its sanctuaries and support its people's steadfastness.

The paper, published by Al-Zaytouna Center, dealt with the future of Jerusalem city, and noted that current indications point to dangerous future contexts surrounding the Holy City in the short and medium term.

The paper prepared by Dr. Walid Abdel-Hayy clarified that the balance of power will determine Jerusalem's fate, indicating that the balance of local, regional and international powers is not for the Palestinian party in the foreseeable future.

Arabian side

In terms of Arab negotiating behavior, the paper emphasized that the change in Arab and Palestinian positions is the dominant trend.

Pointed out that Arab diplomacy started on the basis of refusing the establishment of an Israeli state in Palestine, then accepted the truce with it, then accepted negotiation with it, then full recognition of it, and then started the Arab gradual abandonment of the Palestinian issue, which means that the Arab party may continue this retreat in all subjects (refugees, borders, water. The right of resistance).

American position

As for the American position, according to the paper, the change started since Reagan's administration (1981-1989), i.e. after Egypt got out of the conflict, passing by the United States' abstention in favor of a Security Council resolution in 1980 concerning the Israeli decision to consider Jerusalem the unified capital of Israel. He ended with Trump's recent positions by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and transferring the US embassy to it.

And it pointed out that Trump’s period and the transfer of the embassy were an expression of a rising trend in harmony with the balance of power, which has been a major flaw in Israel’s interest with events in the world since 2011 up to now, moreover increasing restrictions on the Palestinian side to achieve more imbalance, such as pressuring Gaza on Arab and international levels, and decreasing aids to Palestinians.

Israeli public opinion

According to the studies of the National Security Studies Institute at Tel Aviv University, there is a relation between the degree of adherence to East Jerusalem in the Israeli public opinion and the momentum of resistance against occupation, and according to the studies of the institute, from 1994 to 1998, 80% of the Israeli public opinion refused to divide Jerusalem by land or municipality. This has fallen to 60% from 2014 to 2015 and 2016.

The Institute's report says that the knife uprising between 2015-2016 has played an important role in the continuous retreat from the idea of no urban division, and the presence of the separation wall has reinforced the retreat and reached about 49% in 2017.

Al-Qudus situation

As for changes in the current situation in Jerusalem, 25% want the current situation in Jerusalem to remain as it is, 27% support giving the Palestinians in the Arab suburbs of Jerusalem (east of Jerusalem) more powers to manage their affairs except the old Jerusalem. While 28% support an independant municipality for Palestinians but under the authority of Israel, which is higher than before, in 2017 it was about 23%.

The institute believes that there are problems facing the Israeli policy in Jerusalem, including that most of the international community looks at the eastern Jerusalem as occupied land, and the intensity of the religious dimension of Jews, Arabs and Muslims inflame feelings and make it’s explosion possible every time.

It is also a problem that 38% of Jerusalem residents (East and West) are Arabs, and there is a possibility of an increase (East Jerusalem inhabitants number 230 thousand Palestinians) and the percentage of settlers in Arab suburbs in Jerusalem is less than 1% of the Arab population in the areas where the settlements are located.

For example, Silwan had a population of 8,700 in 1990 without any settlers, and now there are 500 settlers versus 20,000 Palestinians, which means that the percentage of Jews to Arabs is increasing in favor of Jews on the basis of the rise in the percentage of settlers from 0 settlers per 8,700 Palestinians in 1990 to a settler for every 40 Palestinians at present.

Future

According to the paper, there are major risks to Jerusalem and its future near and medium perspective, and the future status of the city can be determined as follows:

• the possibility of two states with a percentage of 26% which have two routes: Two capitals and two municipalities 11%, or capital with two municipalities 15%.

• 74% probability of one country with three tracks: one capital but two separate municipalities 22%, two municipalities in two divisions 26%, or one municipality 26%.

This means that the path of Israeli domination is most likely according to the current data, and that Israel will follow Jerusalem Judaization and change its identity according to the current balance of powers.